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SANTA CLARA, Calif. — In the weeks before Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a fractured foot against Miami, Brock Purdy did all he could to prepare himself for NFL action. But opportunities to build cohesion with the 49ers’ offensive weapons were exceedingly scarce for the rookie, as backup QBs see virtually no first-team snaps at practices.
Tight end George Kittle even estimated that, prior to this week, Purdy saw a grand total of only four reps with the first unit all season. Purdy had spent essentially all of his time as the 49ers’ scout team quarterback, mimicking the upcoming opponent so that his own team’s defense could prepare.
“We played a lot of moving, athletic quarterbacks this year and Brock did a really good job of giving us some looks of extending plays and creating, throwing the ball down field,” 49ers’ defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans said Thursday. “He even threw no-look passes when we needed him to.”
After his impersonations were finished (those no-look passes might’ve been emulations of Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford) and his 49ers teammates had left for the locker room, the work that’s currently coming in truly handy for Purdy would begin.
He stayed on the mostly empty field with assistant quarterbacks coach Klay Kubiak.
“I would run all the plays that Jimmy ran at practice, but on air,” Purdy said Thursday. “So not throwing to receivers or anybody. We were just going out there and running through the whole practice script.”
In that way, the rookie installed every game plan in his head, just in case his number would be called on Sunday. It was visualization that paid off last week, when Garoppolo went down early and Purdy delivered a 210-yard, two-touchdown performance in a 33-17 victory for the 49ers.
Now, entering Sunday’s showdown against Tom Brady and Buccaneers at Levi’s Stadium, Purdy has gotten to prepare with an actual huddle around him. And according to Kittle, the rookie is even commanding it.
“I won’t throw anyone under the bus, but he did yell at somebody in the huddle for talking yesterday, and I was laughing so hard,” Kittle said. “I was like, ‘Dude, quiet man. The quarterback is talking.’”
The 49ers believe that the 22-year-old Purdy’s confidence is rooted in the fact that he was a four-year starter in college at Iowa State. The team trusts Purdy’s resulting command of his position’s nuances and believes he can keep the 49ers’ machine churning against a Tampa Bay defense that’s ranked No. 8 in DVOA — significantly higher than the No. 17 Miami unit that visited last week.
It’s time to truly see what the 49ers might have in their third starting quarterback of the season. If it’s anything like the last time Purdy made a starting debut at a new level — he threw for 318 yards and four touchdowns in Iowa State’s 48-42 win over Oklahoma State as a college freshman — the 49ers will certainly be pleased.
“I think the biggest thing is seeing the older guys, the veterans of the team, just come up to me and tell me, ‘Hey, like we got you,’” Purdy said. “And even the guys on defense, they’re like, do your thing on offense, we’re going to hold it down and do our part.
“We’re not just going to throw you out there and leave you out there by yourself. They all got my back and I think that’s just been the coolest part about it, so knowing that I’m not alone in this whole thing.”
Here are 10 observations followed by our predictions for Sunday’s game:
1. Injury report: Nick Bosa didn’t practice this week and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with a hamstring issue. Bosa was spotted in the weight room during Friday’s session. Coach Kyle Shanahan said that Bosa is one of the team’s few players who has a chance of playing even without any practice during the week, but the 49ers must also factor in their subsequent game — on Thursday at Seattle — when making a decision on Bosa’s status this weekend.
No other issues surfaced over the course of the week. Garoppolo, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway (strained pectoral muscle) and safety Tarvarius Moore (sprained knee) have not been placed on injured reserve, but all of those players will miss several weeks.
2. How good does Purdy need to be to keep the 49ers in Super Bowl contention? The timing of Garoppolo’s potential return is unclear, but there does seem to at least be a chance that he’ll be back for the playoffs if the 49ers manage to make that tournament.
Specifics of the task are unclear. The 49ers are taking matters one week at a time and trusting that the totality of their roster will be good enough to get the job done.
Below is a look at expected points added (EPA) per game in each phase for selected Super Bowl contenders this century, courtesy of TruMedia. The fourth column shows the sum of the three preceding parts — or an objective overall measure of team efficiency.
Top 2022 contenders are listed in the top third of the chart. Other teams of interest are listed in the middle third and the last five Super Bowl winners — plus the 49ers, the 2019 runners-up — are listed in the bottom third.
NFL Super Bowl contenders, EPA/game
If Purdy can keep the offense afloat (the positive EPA range seems like a worthy goal), the 49ers project to remain a force to be reckoned with. This will be especially true if their defense keeps surging. Since the Oct. 23 loss to Kansas City, the 49ers’ defense has averaged plus-8.6 EPA/game — or 3 points per game above their season-long average.
So simple math suggests that the 49ers can absorb an offensive decline under Purdy and still field an overall EPA number near the top of the league — just as long as that offensive drop isn’t drastic.
3. The 2000 Ravens and 2001 Patriots, both Super Bowl champions, are included in the chart for illustrative purposes that are relevant to the defensively-led 49ers.
Baltimore had an overpowering defense — one that overcame an extremely weak offense — and New England lost its starting QB, Drew Bledsoe, in the regular season.
Bledsoe’s replacement, of course, was Brady (Purdy was a 1-year-old when that switch happened, by the way). Brady was far from spectacular on the Patriots’ run to the Super Bowl, evidenced above by New England’s barely above-average offense. But he was certainly effective, and the Patriots’ overall balance was good enough to win a title.
The 49ers believe their roster also has the requisite balance to win a title, even after Garoppolo’s injury.
“That is a big deal,” Shanahan said Monday. “But I do also think our team is built for this.”
4. This game marks a homecoming for Brady, who grew up in San Mateo and attended Junipero Serra High School.
“My parents still live on Portola Drive in San Mateo,” Brady said to reporters in Tampa Bay on Thursday. “Same house I grew up in. I was just a lucky kid growing up in the Bay Area. It was a great place to grow up.”
5. Bad luck prevented Brady from ever playing at Candlestick Park. His former Patriots team visited in 2008, but that was the season that Brady missed with a torn ACL. When New England returned to face the 49ers on the road in 2016, Candlestick was gone — replaced by Levi’s.
The Patriots beat the 49ers, 30-16, in that game. Brady threw for 280 yards and four touchdowns.
6. Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles blitzes at exceptionally high rates with his defense, making for an intriguing matchup against Purdy — who delivered some very good throws against the blitz last week. In fact, Shanahan said that Purdy’s best toss came to Kittle on third-and-10 against unblocked pressure.
“He’s got a huge challenge,” Shanahan said of Purdy. “Todd alone, but also the talent they have over there. They stop the run as good as anybody in this league. They’ve been doing that for a number of years. They’re extremely good in their coverages because they can do anything that they want. They’re good in man, they have all the blitzes, so Todd’s probably going to throw everything at us and what works, he’ll keep doing it until we figure out how to do it better back.”
7. On Thursday, 49ers offensive line coach Chris Foerster shined some light on running back Christian McCaffrey’s intensity.
“Christian’s awesome,” Foerster said. “I go up to congratulate him and (Kyle Juszczyk). They’re sitting on a cooler after the game. And I go to dab them up and say, ‘Hey man, great job. Love you guys.’
“And the first thing Christian does is stand up, look me in the eyes, serious as a heart attack. He goes, ‘I missed too much today. I promise I’ll get better. I missed some holes and I left too much out there. I won’t let you guys down again. Just give me time. Be patient with me.’ And I’m like, ‘Christian, relax man. We’re winning. We won the game. We’ll get to work next week and correct our errors.’ But the dude is serious-minded. He wants to be absolutely perfect in everything he does.”
8. Second-year 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir held up very well in coverage against Miami’s high-octane attack. He allowed only one catch on five targets — very positive news for a 49ers’ defense that’s trying to make sure the cornerback spot opposite Charvarius Ward is shored up entering the stretch run.
“D-Mo each week, I’ve seen more and more confidence,” Ryans said. “I think it showed really versus Arizona when he was matched up versus (DeAndre) Hopkins and we knew that was a big challenge for us and he went out there and he competed and made a play versus him and I think that really helped him. As a corner, that’s the biggest thing. If you’re going to play on the island, you have to have confidence. With D-Mo, I’ve seen it grow each and every week.”
Tampa Bay’s receiving corps features veterans Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones. Another big test for Lenoir is on tap.
9. Here’s some visual data on the 49ers’ balance. Offensive EPA is represented on the X-axis and defensive EPA is represented on the Y-axis:
It appears to be a three-horse race for strongest contender in the NFC. Purdy’s play might determine if the 49ers can continue hanging with Philadelphia and Dallas.
10. After McCaffrey arrived to the 49ers via trade in late October, he found a helper in his crash course on the playbook: Purdy.
“Brock was unbelievably helpful to me when I first got here,” McCaffrey said Thursday. “Saturday night before games we’d go through the whole play sheet. I was doing it for me, but I think it helped him to verbalize it out loud. I think that’s a big thing.
“He just jumped right to it, anytime I needed it. Wanting to be great. Wanting to help out. There’s not a lot of people who would do that. It’s a testament to who he is. So it’s cool to see him now, now that he’s calling it for real.”
49ers vs. Buccaneers predictions
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Matt Barrows: The Buccaneers have a better defense than the one Purdy faced Sunday and they have the second greatest quarterback of all time. (Gratuitous nod to the 49ers fans.) But as has been the case for most of the season, the 49ers simply are a deeper, more well-rounded team than Tampa Bay. Brady obviously is missing longtime target Rob Gronkowski this season and his top two receivers, Godwin and Evans, still aren’t back to peak form. If the 49ers could hold the Dolphins to 17 points they ought to limit the Buccaneers to something similarly modest.
David Lombardi: Scoring points against the Buccaneers with a first-time starter at quarterback will be difficult. But this 49ers’ defense is on its way to greatness and it has another wonderful opportunity to make a name for itself — against perhaps the greatest of all time.
(Photo of Brock Purdy: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)