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Welcome to our Tuesday newsletter of various thoughts and ideas as we head into the Combine and soon-to-be-free agency. This is your weekly Cowboys (and NFL) riffing!
• As you know by now, I have plenty of interest to really focus on adding between one and three playmakers to this offense. The Cowboys made a lot of plays, but as the season ended in a very similar spot as the previous one, we saw again what attrition and limited options can do to a top offense when it goes up against “playoff defenses.” There is really no other way to say it: The raw numbers that tell us what a dynamic offense the Cowboys have is largely built against teams that begin their offseason at New Year’s because they have no playoff to attend. Those teams that stand between Dallas and a return to the glory of championship games and Super Bowls do not seem terribly frightened by what Dallas can put out there beyond CeeDee Lamb and perhaps Tony Pollard.
You can tell when watching the Super Bowl or Championship Games that those teams have plenty more. They have multiple No. 1 wide receivers, elite tight ends and depth pieces that can join them for 20 snaps and add lots of juice. The Cowboys? They have decent depth, but nothing scary. And their fastest man, KaVontae Turpin, who we were once told they were eager to get him the ball this year on offense, caught one more pass last season than anyone reading this. … Well, actually, one pass in the regular season and one more pass in the postseason which ended in a huge hit and general laughter from America on the final play of the season in San Francisco.
GO DEEPER
How Cowboys could fill some of their biggest needs in first three rounds of the draft
• Maybe the biggest decision of the offseason is what to do with Pollard. I know we have been through the scenarios: Sign him to an extension, let him walk or drop a tag on him (the window to franchise tag players began today). I still am not sure what I would do. Word on the streets makes it sound like Dallas will tag him, but that price will feel odd if you are not getting much of him until midseason as he heals fully. But, extending him seems crazy, too, even if he never was injured because the rate that would cost would probably just have him replacing any savings you get from Ezekiel Elliott as you over-invest again in running back. That leaves letting him walk which, as we just explained, would reduce your “scary” skill guys from two to one. So, that seems unwise, too. Looking back, not only did that situation cost them a chance to win that playoff game, but it also put them between a rock and a hard place. Either he doesn’t heal fast and you waste a ton of cash on a one-year tag or he is great and now you are losing him next year as an UFA who will start his per-year valuation at the tag number of $10.1 million. The good news is that they know his medical reality more than I do right now.
Cowboys Draft Digest: Tight ends | Wide receivers
• This week will be Week 3 of the Draft Digest and to continue the theme of “let’s find them playmakers”, I will be doing six more wide receivers. With the combine about to hit, testing scores matter to me, but not as much as you might think. I am looking for some requisite testing results, but I am far more interested in watching football players play football. I always harken back to Orlando Brown in 2018 who was the big tackle from Oklahoma. Bleacher Report’s Doug Farrar wrote a story, “Did Orlando Brown Just Have the Worst Combine Performance of All Time?”, because, in fact, it was awful. I mean, the pie chart below is how he did in every category compared to his peers. It basically tells us that he was big, but otherwise was at the minimum across the board. Yet, he blocked guys at Oklahoma very well. Do you know what he did for the Ravens and now the Chiefs in the NFL? That’s right, blocked guys very well. He was a menace on Super Bowl Sunday and is now a world champion at left tackle. He was also drafted 83rd overall. Pretty good, right? But, his combine was arguably the worst ever. When in doubt, we should judge football players on playing football. And yes, 0 percentile is bad.
Reader questions
Let’s answer a few notes from you guys …
What team would sign Zeke if he didn’t sign with the Cowboys? Is there even a market for him? — Allen Adkins
I think the answer is that given the number of analysts and scouts I have talked to about Elliott this year and the consensus opinion is in stone. He has very little left in his legs and the word is out. I believe he has one option for employment above the league minimum and it is right here in Dallas. I could be wrong, but if I am, it is a very low number. Maybe one year for $2 million or $2.5 million which is a far cry from what he is used to. It is a fast decline for players who run the ball and lose their legs and as good a guy as he has been for this room, I think Dallas should move on quickly. He reminds me a bit of Eddie Lacy when his legs went. He was great for about 2 1/2 years and then was out of the league in five. It just isn’t a longevity position for many. Adrian Peterson is the exception and we all know it. Sad, but true.
What do you believe will be one of the changes to the offensive play calling in Mike McCarthy’s West Coast style of offense? One thing for sure is there needs to be a consistent deep threat for that style of offense to work. — J K1dd33
I loved the modern offenses in this league using so many shifts and motions to cause matchup issues. The Chiefs’ entire red zone offense in the Super Bowl was based on short motions to change the matchups with Travis Kelce and take advantage of the Eagles sitting in man coverage over and over again. I wish I could do a film study here and demonstrate what I am talking about (it is a long offseason, let’s put that on the to-do list), but trust me, the Eagles were a mess in the red zone. Well, shifts and motions were underutilized by the Cowboys — perhaps because they were trying to cut down on pre-snap penalties this year. But, 20th! 20th is well below league average and I hate it because the offenses I like all employ it tirelessly. Why? Because it works. Mike McDaniel in Miami uses it on 78 percent of plays, Kyle Shanahan 73 percent, Andy Reid 65 percent, Detroit 68 percent and Baltimore 64 percent are all among the top teams to use it. Dallas? Just 51 percent. It doesn’t mean motion means you win more, because the Eagles were 32nd in pre-snap motions and shifts, but with a veteran QB, you should be able to find the matchups you like. I want that here more and more.
Leighton Vander Esch (Raymond Carlin III / USA Today)
Who do you think has the highest chance of being a Cowboy in 2023 — Zeke, Schultz or LVE? At what price (if any) would you keep any of the 3? — Robert Crowther
This answer is pretty easy for me. It is Leighton Vander Esch at a modest price on a two- or three-year deal (let’s say: three years, $15 million or so) and I am pleased for both parties. I just don’t think Zeke helps you much and I don’t think Dalton Schultz is nearly worth the money he will cost. But Vander Esch offered good value this year and can help handle that linebacker spot now that Micah Parsons is a full-time edge. It makes too much sense.
I feel the biggest need is OL. What’s your opinion? — Charlie Pruenca
I disagree. I believe Dallas has invested too much in its offensive line and needs to stop throwing its top assets at it so often. Now, I am over-stating how often, of course, because four first-round offensive linemen in 12 drafts is not that crazy when you look around the league. The Bengals have done it, too. Detroit has drafted five since 2012. Miami has drafted four, the Giants, Tennessee and New Orleans have all draft four in Round 1 since 2011. Several of those teams have not done it very well. The Cowboys are 4 for 4 on their top-round big men with Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, and Tyler Smith all high quality. This causes people to assume they have a gift and it is a sure thing in the future. I hate over-investment in one spot and would love them to replenish the playmakers now and continue to help the defense. But, in the end, you should be open to “BPA” and I know the Cowboys plan on doing just that.
Talk to you later in the week with the Draft Digest.
(Top photo of Tony Pollard: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images)