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Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott’s recent moves have dominated the NFL’s headlines entering Week 2 of the preseason. Neither players’ addition, however, is expected to make much of a difference when it comes to their respective new teams and their hopes of catching the Bills in the AFC East division race.
Buffalo, the defending two-time division champs, remain the favorites to win the division at +125, via Caesars Sportsbook. The Jets, who agreed to terms with Cook on a one-year deal, are right behind Buffalo at +250. Miami is next at +300, while the Patriots, who agreed to terms with Elliott on a one-year contract, are taking up the rear at +800.
CBS Sports data scientist Stephen Oh didn’t see any changes in the Jets’ simulations after adding Cook, a Pro Bowler during each of his final four seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. The expectation of Breece Hall’s return was the reason why the Jets’ simulations remained the same, as they were already expected to have a solid run game. Hall returned to practice on Tuesday after his rookie season was cut short after he tore his ACL in Week 7 of the 2022 season.
Elliott, however, slightly increased the Patriots’ playoff chances (4 percent) in Oh’s simulations based on his productivity on the goal line. While most of Elliott’s numbers declined during his final season with the Cowboys, he did run for 12 touchdowns while continuing to be an effective, short-yardage back.
In New York, Cook will try to become the first Jets running back to break the 1,000-yard rushing barrier since Thomas Jones did so back in 2015. With the Patriots, Elliott will hope to duplicate the success of several other veteran players who Bill Belichick signed later in their careers.
Elliott surely wants similar success to what Corey Dillon enjoyed upon arriving in New England in 2004. A former Pro Bowler with the Bengals, a then 29-year-old Dillon rushed for a career-high 1,635 yards that season while helping the Patriots repeat as champions.
While Cook will team up with Hall in New York, Elliott will join forces in New England with Rhamondre Stevenson, a third-year veteran who split time last season with Damien Harris, who is currently with the Bills. Last season, Stevenson rushed for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns while netting a five yards-per-carry average. He also caught 69 passes for 421 yards and a touchdown for the Patriots, who suffered their second losing season in three years.
Elliott’s addition helps, but, as Oh’s simulations illustrated, the Patriots will have to rely more on other players if they are going to seriously challenge the Bills for AFC East supremacy. The same can be said of the Jets, who will likely lean more on Aaron Rodgers’ arm than Cook, Hall and the rest of the Jets’ running game.
Here’s how CBS Sports Fantasy guru Chris Towers sizes up the impact for each running back:
- Ezekiel Elliott: “He’s probably just a role player on what we expect to be a mediocre offense. I’ll take Elliott after 45 or 50 or so backs are off the board, but I’d be surprised if he was ever much more than a touchdown-or-bust option.”
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Because of Zeke’s goal-line prowess, “Stevenson is still a viable third-round option for me, especially toward the latter half of the round if I want an RB, but I prefer him in the fourth round if I can get him there. That probably represents a drop of about a round from where he’s been going in ADP lately, which seems reasonable enough to me.”
- Tony Pollard: “The biggest winner of Ezekiel Elliott’s decision to sign with the Patriots? Probably Pollard. Elliott is coming off a 12-touchdown final season with the Cowboys in 2022. Pollard’s locked in as a top-15 pick.”
- Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall: “Hall will likely be brought along slowly for the start of the season, so don’t draft him expecting him to be your RB2 right away. But he should get there before long, and there’s still RB1 upside once he’s 100% if this offense is as good as we think it could be. Cook is likely to be the better option early in the season, and should be a decent starting option for much of the season. It’s possible he has more left in the tank than we saw last season and ends up holding Hall back all season long, but I’d bet on the young guy who looked like an elite playmaker in both facets of the game a year ago. Let’s call Hall a fifth-round pick, and Cook more like a seventh-rounder.”
You can click here for Towers’ more in-depth Fantasy breakdown.